MLB Betting Trends You Can Trust

These are MLB betting trends you can trust.

Key Points

– Knowing MLB betting trends gives an advantage to the average bettor.

– Understanding MLB betting trends is part of any strong betting strategy.

MLB Betting Trends You Can Trust

Due to its lengthy season and its dominance of the sports landscape during the summer months, Major League Baseball is regarded as one of the most crucial leagues to understand for betting purposes. How to bet on baseball is important for summer bettors.

When it comes to betting on MLB, there are a few tendencies to be aware of just like any other sport. Some of these tendencies are more consistent than others. There are a handful of MLB betting trends that bettors should take note of. 

Backing Divisional Underdogs

Although there will undoubtedly be exceptions to this rule, betting on underdogs in divisional games is typically a wise move. There is a higher level of familiarity with the opponent because each team in a division plays each other 19 times a year. There have been teams – the Baltimore Orioles were one – who have won just one or two games against a division foe in a season. That is rare though.

According to data gathered between 2005 and 2018, underdogs in divisional games made a profit of +83.72 units. This is significant because underdogs in non-divisional games suffered a huge loss of -574.62 units over the same time span.

This pattern becomes even more profitable when the divisional underdog is on the road. The betting public tends to overestimate home-field advantage. This increases the value of the visiting team both in intra-divisional games and in many inter-divisional contests.


Avoiding Big Favorites

When frequently betting on MLB, choosing strong favorites is a recipe for disaster. Sportsbooks nearly always charge too much since they know that people will want to wager on the favorites. 

You will find that popular MLB teams like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers have inflated lines. This is due to their notoriety alone, similar to the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL. 

Sportsbooks know that the betting public will wager on the Yankees whether they are a -150 favorite or a -195 favorite. As a result, they jack up the price.

MLB favorites do win more than underdogs – more than 60 percent of the time. However, if you simply wagered on all favorites since 2005, you would be bankrupt…several times over. 

Take a game featuring the Detroit Tigers as a +435 underdog to the Houston Astros. It’s a classic example why betting on big favorites is dangerous. Bettors would have needed to wager $560 (-560 odd) just to make $100 on Houston. 

Detroit won that game that day proving that betting on big favorites results in small gains and huge losses. Avoiding big favorites is one of the top MLB betting trends.

MLB Betting Trends – 1-Run Games

The run line betting option on MLB games is a little different from those used to betting on the point spread in the NFL or NBA. Because of the lack of scoring in baseball, the run line is always set at a margin of 1.5. 

The run line is always -1.5 for the moneyline favorite and a +1.5 for the moneyline underdog. Due to the high likelihood of one-run results in MLB, the underdog team catching 1.5 on the run line is virtually always the favorite in terms of the juice on the wager. 

Four of every nine MLB games ends with a scoring margin of one run. Sportsbooks know this and set odds accordingly. Pittsburgh may be the moneyline underdog against St. Louis. On the run line though, you may seed the Pirates listed at +1.5 (-110). That is because of the likelihood of a one-run game. 

In looking at MLB betting trends, bettors can help themselves by looking at individual teams and their final scores. Some teams may play more one-run games than others. Looking at teams’ scores can help you with your MLB run line betting. 

Other Items to Watch

While there are numerous MLB betting trends to consider, there are also a number of other factors to consider when betting on MLB. 

  • Weather: One of the outside variables that can affect a game’s outcome is the weather. The ball will move farther as the temperature rises. The temperature, humidity, and wind direction will have a significant impact on the runs or scores. Before placing your bets, keep these items in mind.
  • Timing: In addition to the weather, the timing of the baseball game will affect the results. In general, batters do better during the day.
  • Streaks: Just like other sports, baseball also has its streaks. The performance of a team can be affected by consecutive victories and defeats.
  • Stadium: A number of elements, like the park’s location and design, will influence your wagering. You should bet on home teams, for example, because they tend to perform better when they are playing in their own stadium. The dimensions of a stadium can also impact a game’s outcome.
  • Pitcher: While it’s necessary to consider the team’s players and their track records, the pitcher is the most crucial. The starting pitcher will have the biggest impact on the chances of winning.