Can You Win Betting on Baseball

We’re here to help you win betting on baseball.

Key Points

– Baseball offers bettors more opportunities to win than any other sport.

– Smart bettors can find strong betting value in betting MLB underdogs.

Betting on baseball is a bit different than wagering on other sports like football and basketball. The sheer number of games – 2,430 – gives bettors many more opportunities on a daily basis.

If all 30 MLB teams are in action on a certain day, that’s 15 games all with numerous potential bets. Smarter bettors know where to find value in baseball betting.

That is the simple answer to the question presented in this article’s headline. Yes, you can win betting on baseball. Get to know MLB betting markets.

The betting public loves two things – favorites and popular teams and players. Smart bettors like value and staying away from heavy favorites is a strategy they follow.

Bettors will often see popular teams like the Yankees favored at -200 or even -250. Take the following as an example.

Kansas City +240 +1.5 (+130)

NY Yankees -280 -1.5 (-150)

Here, the Yankees are heavily favored. Recreational bettors love the Yankees and lay down $280 to win $100. The issue here is two things. One, MLB favorites win about 60 percent of the time. That means if you keep betting big favorites, your bankroll is going in the hole.

The second thing is that there is probably a better value bet available. In this example, you could still back the Yankees, but backing them on the run line is the better option.

The Yankees are a big favorite, right? Maybe they have an ace pitcher on the mound and they are playing a mediocre to poor team. Expecting them to win by two runs, you back New York -1.5 and pay only $150 to $100 at baseball sportsbooks.

This is an example of getting an opportunity on a heavy favorite at a better price.

To really enjoy success in betting on baseball, you have to look for quality underdogs. As mentioned, continually betting favorites – especially big ones – will get you in trouble.

When you bet on a big favorite, you win little and lose big. When you bet on an underdog, you win big and lose small.

Let’s say you bet on five MLB favorites on a given day. You win three of the five. That’s a win, right? Not exactly, because you could end up losing money. 

If you bet on five underdogs, you don’t have to win as often in order to break even. It’s much easier to turn a profit too.

If favorites win roughly 60 percent of the time, underdogs win about 40 percent of games. The number is actually closer to 44 percent. Regardless, here’s the beauty of betting MLB underdogs. 

Remember at -110 odds, a bettor must win 52.4 percent of the time to break even. At plus-money odds, a bettor doesn’t have to win even 50 percent of the time to end up making a profit.

Finding undervalued MLB underdogs is the way to make money betting baseball. Not all underdogs are created equal. There are certain underdogs that are better than others.

In a given MLB season, each team plays 162 games. Of those 162 games, 76 are played against opponents within a division. A team plays each of its division foes 19 times per year. That creates some familiarity. 

That familiarity gives underdogs an advantage. Divisional underdogs win more games against their division opponents than they do against non-division opponents.

Bettors can break this down even further by focusing on road divisional underdogs. The public tends to put too much value on home field advantage. As a result, smart bettors can typically find better value on a road divisional underdog.

This is especially true in a situation where there is a high game total. “High” game totals would be those with a total of 8.5 or more. 

With a high total set, oddsmakers are banking on more runs being scored. That means the underdog is going to score too. This helps the underdog.

The road divisional underdog is definitely one to target. There are other situations where bettors can find value on an underdog.

Bettors can look for recent streaks. Any underdog that has lost three straight is off the target list. 

Typically, bettors should stay away from underdogs that are over +150 odds. Those at or below +150 have a better perceived chance of winning. A +250 underdog is given those odds for a reason. 

Bettors should always be looking at the pitching matchups and bullpens. Weather, especially wind, can also play a role in making a final decision. 

MLB bettors can also bet against the spread, or the run line. Bettors should know that roughly 30 percent of all MLB games end up being decided by one run.

One of every three games ends up 2-1, 4-3, or maybe 5-4. That makes betting the run line difficult. It makes it especially difficult in backing home favorites.

Remember, a one-run game in favor of the home team after the top of the ninth inning remains a one-run game. The home team does not bat in the bottom of the ninth.