Baseball Betting : Avoid April Chalk 4/11

When baseball betting is used as a means of sports investment, one tried but true pattern is infused in April.  Here at APEX Baseball Betting, we strive to bring high quality information and theories that translate into profit in your accounts.  No matter what your bankroll, there are nuggets of information to augment our mindsets with.  Today we cover the topic of avoiding April chalk by looking at the Mets this Monday morning.

Baseball Betting :  A Step Beyond the Basics

Here we make a basic assumption that the reader is at least familiar with what the terms mean in baseball betting.  If vernacular like chalk, runline, and action/listed leave you scratching your head, we implore you to read about the basics of baseball betting.  With this as a foundation, let us examine the topic of living off of last season’s reputation.

Mets’ Pitching Staff

An assembly of talent that can throw fast and well.  Legend John Smoltz calls them the best starting staff since his Braves shut down the NL.  Even with Matt Harvey having a sub par spring with health woes, the linesmakers have made the Mets the favorite in every game.  No fear was given as the road Mets opened up in KC against the champs.  Let us examine the five games, price, and what we would be up or down if we went whole hog on the Mets.

Litany of Loss

  • Mets @ KC -116 Loss
  • 4/5 -125 Win
  • Phila @ Mets -260 Win
  • 4/9 -156 Loss
  • 4/10 -245 Loss

Yes, few if anyone would say that the Phillies should be favored against the Mets in New York.  What we are shaking our heads at is the over -200 price the Mets got less than one week in the season.  Slow starts alone warrant no one getting this respect in the first game.  In fact, Matt Harvey is still working his way into form and got the benefit of the doubt with a -245 line.  No need to get into metrics as the basic 0-2 with an over 4.00 ERA is a sure sign that Harvey is a fade for the remainder of April at prices over -200.

 Blow to the Bankroll

Casual fans and those that love to bet favorites would have seen their wallets rupture at paying the bookie even though they only went 2-3 in their wagers.  It is all about the units so digest this number.  If one wager an even unit in every game, the result would be a loss of 3.26 Units.  This is a disaster and violates two rules that we will reiterate in the conclusion.

Selective wagering is usually encouraged as blindly railing a team usually results in despair.  The second rule is more of a time sensitive one.  April should almost always have the investor either bet on underdogs or the runline on the favorites.  A few times, national league home favorite ML could be entertained but very rarely.  Reason being is that the formulas are not in tune yet so there is money in the dog.  Join us next time at APEX Baseball Betting for more theories and free picks to play and profit at Americas Bookie.